Cardinals’ postseason decisions: Breaking down Wild Card rotation options
PITTSBURGH — Over the course of the Cardinals’ final regular-season home series last weekend, manager Oli Marmol summoned local scribes into his office for his daily pregame media session.
Since the Cardinals had already clinched the division and locked up a postseason berth earlier in the week, the conversations quickly shifted to playoff mode. There are plenty of scenarios regarding how St. Louis will approach the best-of-three Wild Card Series, which is slated to start Friday at Busch Stadium. Roster decisions are looming, and the next three days will be pivotal in determining if Jordan Hicks (right shoulder fatigue) and Tyler O’Neill (left hamstring strain) will be cleared to be activated off the injured list and onto a postseason roster.
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But the biggest question of all pertains to the rotation. Who will be the starting pitchers in the Wild Card series? The Cardinals have five starting pitchers — Miles Mikolas, José Quintana, Jordan Montgomery, Jack Flaherty and Adam Wainwright. There are also two former starters in Dakota Hudson and Steven Matz available out of the bullpen. Obviously, St. Louis will not need five starters in a best-of-three series, especially when their obvious goal is to win the series in two games.
So, who gets the nod?
“All right, let’s just get to it.” Marmol began. “I have no idea who my three are. Because here’s the reality of the situation: If you want to play the hot hand, Quintana should be in the rotation. He’s done an unbelievable job. (Against) righties, lefties, pounding the zone, mixing, he’s done extremely well. Miles has looked really good against teams that could be the ones that we play. Hell of a job against San Diego, really nice outing against Milwaukee.
“You got Montgomery, who’s been nails for us all year since we got him from New York. His last several outings, gave up some homers, didn’t look the same, but all his stuff looks about the same and you can count on him. (Saturday) was a nice outing. Then you have Jack, who threw those three innings that we liked on the road (against San Diego) and then came here and did his job. He’s looked good. And then lastly, we can sit here and talk all we want about Waino, but the reality is when the game’s on the line? The playoffs are different than the regular season. You’ve got to be able to carry your water. When you’re out there when it matters, and you tell me you’re not going to count on Waino? I can argue that.
“It’s going to be tough decisions. I don’t know what the three are, but I’m super comfortable picking out of a hat and going to town.”
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Then the skipper paused and laughed.
“That’s not how we’ll make the decision,” Marmol clarified. “But my point is, there’s not a bad choice. We’ll be very thoughtful as to how we make that decision. I’ve yet to make it.”
All things considered, the Cardinals are in a good spot when it comes to their pitching options. No, St. Louis may not have a bona fide ace leading their staff, but all five starters have shown the ability to dominate on a given day. The rotation possesses substantial depth, and each pitcher is also flexible enough to be used out of the bullpen in a piggyback role. That’s the likely route the Cardinals will take when assembling their Wild Card roster. And while they’ll only need two or three starters on paper, there are plenty of ways to incorporate all five. It helps that each pitcher is game for whatever role they’re needed in, and none of the five need much time to warm up.
That brings us to a series of mini-questions: Who should start Game 1, regardless of opponent or role? Who is best suited to piggyback a starter out of the bullpen? And how will the opponent, who is still unknown, impact these decisions?
Let’s take a deeper look into each starting pitcher to find out.
Miles Mikolas
2022 stats (all stats through Oct. 2): 32 starts, 12-13, 199 1/3 IP, 3.30 ERA, 1.033 WHIP, 6.9 K/9 ratio, 1.8 BB/9 ratio .226 opposing average
September stats: 5 starts, 2-3, 31 IP, 2.32 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 9.4 K/9 ratio, 2.6 BB/9 ratio, .200 opposing average
Mikolas was dominant over the first half, logging a 2.54 ERA without missing a start en route to his second All-Star berth. He faltered a bit in August and early September, as he struggled to command his curveball. But whatever issues plagued him earlier in the month have all but dissipated. The stats above are through Sunday, but it’s worth noting that Mikolas finished his regular season by surpassing 200 innings with three frames in a final tune-up relief outing Monday against Pittsburgh. It’s a remarkable feat when taking into consideration how much time he’s missed with various injuries over the last three years.
Miles Mikolas, Painted 95mph Two Seamer. 🖌️🎨
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 22, 2022
He also finished the year looking as sharp as ever. He logged six innings in all three of his final regular-season starts and allowed just one earned run over his final two. His swing-and-miss rate spiked and he kept the walks at bay, similar to what he’s done all season. Mikolas’ final start — a one-run, six-inning affair against Milwaukee in which he tied his season-high with nine strikeouts — was the outing that clinched the division. It was the best he looked all month.
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While nothing is certain, Mikolas should be the top candidate to start Game 1. He’s not overly-splitty, as Marmol alluded to, and when he can spot the curveball, his five-pitch mix is just as effective as any top pitcher in the National League. But his best trait may be his adaptability. Mikolas’ versatile arsenal allows him to switch between needing to pitch for soft contact or needing a strikeout.
All year long, Mikolas has dueled and matched opposing aces. Why stop now?
José Quintana
2022 stats: 31 starts, 6-7, 162 2/3 IP, 2.99 ERA, 1.223 WHIP, 7.6 K/9 ratio, 2.5 BB/9 ratio, .248 opposing average
September stats: 5 starts, 2-1, 30 1/3 IP, 0.89 ERA, 0.758 WHIP, 8.3 K/9 ratio, 0.8 BB/9 ratio, .189 opposing average
When president of baseball operations John Mozeliak elected to trade for Quintana at the deadline, the move mostly slid under the radar. The organization identified Quintana as a reliable left-handed starter who could stabilize the rotation, but the organization viewed it as a blockbuster move.
It sure is turning out to be one, anyway. Prior to Monday, Quintana did not allow more than two earned runs in any of the 11 starts he made as a Cardinal. The southpaw surged through September, allowing just three earned runs and three walks total, in his most dominant stretch for both St. Louis and Pittsburgh this year.
José Quintana says getting ahead in counts and a focus on inducing groundballs and double plays have been key to his resurgence this season.#STLCards
— Bally Sports Midwest (@BallySportsMW) October 4, 2022
It’d be easy to agree with Marmol’s hot-hand theory and pencil in Quintana as the Game 2 starter, especially if the Cardinals end up playing the left-handed heavy Phillies. He also owns the lowest home run rate in baseball, averaging 0.4 per every nine innings. But there’s also an argument to be made he could be just as effective in a piggyback role. He’s usually at his best the first two times through the order, and he could serve as an ideal weapon in the middle innings to keep an opposing lineup out of sync.
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Wherever he’s slotted, consider this: It’s been five years since Quintana, a 10-year veteran, logged meaningful innings in October. If any pitcher is best suited to rise to the occasion — in whatever role it may be — it’s him.
Jordan Montgomery
2022 stats: 32 starts, 9-6, 178 1/3 IP, 3.48 ERA, 1.093 WHIP, 8.0 K/9 ratio, 1.8 BB/9 ratio, .235 opposing average
September stats: 6 starts, 2-3, 33 IP, 4.36 ERA, 1.333 WHIP, 9 K/9 ratio, 2/46 BB/9 ratio, .265 opposing average
The Cardinals targeted Montgomery at the deadline because he was a sturdy, left-handed sinkerballer with a solid swing-and-miss rate and a low walk rate. In other words, he’s pitched as advertised since coming to St. Louis.
Montgomery’s home run rate jumped in September. He went from allowing one lone round-tripper in August to being tagged for five in September. But his sinkerball still profiles similar to how it did during his electric August run, and he’s done a commendable job in limiting walks. He, like Quintana, could neutralize Philadelphia’s lefty lineup and could be a start in a must-win Game 3 situation, or at least open the first few innings.
He’s also valuable out of the bullpen if a right-handed arm ends up starting for St. Louis. If an opponent is in a spot to deploy left-handed hitters off the bench in a pinch-hit scenario, Marmol can counter with Montgomery in relief to match the moves. Of all the starters, Montgomery’s role is probably the most unpredictable, as the opponent factors into the decision more than the rest of the staff.
Jack Flaherty
2022 stats: 8 starts, 2-1, 35 IP, 4.37 ERA, 1.629 WHIP, 8.2 K/9 ratio, 5.7 BB/9 ratio, .257 opposing average
September stats: 5 starts, 2-1, 27 IP, 4.00 ERA, 1.482 WHIP, 8.7 K/9 ratio, 4.3 BB/9 ratio, .260 opposing average
This wasn’t the type of season Flaherty envisioned for himself, but he still has ample opportunity to impact the club in the postseason. In his final two outings of the regular season, Flaherty racked up back-to-back quality starts and pitched with a demeanor similar to when he was dominant early in the 2021 season. His start against the Padres seemed to propel him back into form, and that outing can’t be ignored if San Diego draws the No. 6 seed.
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Flaherty’s fastball-slider combination is lethal, but his knuckle-curve can be just as effective. And he owns the best swing-and-miss stuff on the staff. The only lingering concern is his walk rate, which is significantly higher this year than his career average. Of the rotation, he might be the club’s best piggyback option. When right, he has the best overall stuff on the squad. His fastball can touch mid-to-upper 90s, and he isn’t afraid to attack the zone and challenge hitters. Flaherty is good for a multi-inning bridge option, or can even pitch in an emergency in case a starter’s outing doesn’t go according to plan.
Jack Flaherty, Wicked 85mph Slider. 🤢
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 17, 2022
Picture a scenario that features Quintana or Montgomery starting a game and the first arm out of the bullpen is Flaherty, who can carry the team to the high-leverage relievers in Giovanny Gallegos and Ryan Helsley. If you’re the Cardinals, chances are you feel pretty good about that blueprint.
Adam Wainwright
2022 stats: 32 starts, 11-12, 191 2/3 IP, 3.71 ERA, 1.283 WHIP, 6.7 K/9 ratio, 2.5 BB/9 ratio, .261 opposing average
September stats: 6 starts, 2-3, 28 2/3 IP, 7.22 ERA, 1.919 WHIP, 4.1 K/9 ratio, 3.5 BB/9 ratio, .358 opposing average
Judging off his September performance alone, Wainwright shouldn’t see a start in the first round of playoffs. But Wainwright isn’t an ordinary pitcher, nor will the Cardinals treat him that way.
Wainwright has been heralded as the ace of the staff all year, but his troubles could not have come at a more inopportune time. A month ago, it would’ve been unfathomable to hypothesize a playoff series in which Wainwright did not start. But that’s baseball, and now Marmol is in a truly difficult situation. There’s no way Wainwright is left off the playoff roster, but it would be a gamble to start him based on his recent box scores (and that’s putting it nicely).
Still, in a winner-take-all situation, the Cardinals could go one of two ways. They could trust Wainwright’s ability to match the moment, as he’s done throughout his 17-year career, and give him the ball on a short leash. Or they could save him for later and use him in relief.
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Wainwright can get warm in a pinch, and though it has been 16 years, he does have some pretty significant success coming out of the bullpen in October. Also, if there’s anyone on the staff the club trusts unequivocally, it’s him.
So yes, for as much as he’s struggled, it’s not a matter of if we will see Wainwright in the postseason, it’s a matter of when. If he continues to wobble, the Cardinals can take solace in having plenty of depth to cover. But if the pre-September version of Wainwright shows up? The rest of October is a brand new ballgame.
(Photo of Miles Mikolas: Jeff Hanisch / USA Today)
