NFL Week 14 playoff standings and projections: Which teams have best chance to make postseason?
Updated through Dec. 7 (Patriots def. Steelers on TNF)
The NFL playoff race is in full swing with five weeks to play. With Week 14 underway, only one of the 32 teams (Carolina Panthers) has been eliminated from postseason contention, and 22 teams are either in the current field or within one game of the final playoff spot in each conference.
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To assess the crowded NFL playoff picture, The Athletic’s NFL projection model quantifies each team’s chances of reaching the postseason by projecting the score for every remaining game along with the resulting team win percentages. We then run that simulation 100,000 times after each day of games to determine each team’s current playoff chances.
Teams are listed below in order of their likelihood of reaching the playoffs, according to the model.
(Note that the model accounts for Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence missing Week 14 but returning the following week. It will be adjusted when we learn more about the severity of his ankle injury. )
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AFC
Conference Seed
1
Remaining Schedule Strength
9
Expected Wins
12.2
In the playoffs
AFC
East
Conference Seed
3
Remaining Schedule Strength
19
Expected Wins
11.5
In the playoffs
AFC
West
Conference Seed
2
Remaining Schedule Strength
2
Expected Wins
11.9
In the playoffs
AFC
North
Conference Seed
4
Remaining Schedule Strength
27
Expected Wins
11.2
In the playoffs
AFC
South
Conference Seed
7
Remaining Schedule Strength
29
Expected Wins
10.1
In the playoffs
AFC
South
Conference Seed
5
Remaining Schedule Strength
23
Expected Wins
9.5
In the playoffs
AFC
North
Conference Seed
6
Remaining Schedule Strength
26
Expected Wins
9.6
In the playoffs
AFC
South
Conference Seed
8
Remaining Schedule Strength
13
Expected Wins
8.6
Not in the playoffs
AFC
North
Conference Seed
11
Remaining Schedule Strength
1
Expected Wins
8.7
Not in the playoffs
AFC
East
Conference Seed
9
Remaining Schedule Strength
16
Expected Wins
8.4
Not in the playoffs
AFC
West
Conference Seed
12
Remaining Schedule Strength
8
Expected Wins
7.6
Not in the playoffs
AFC
West
Conference Seed
10
Remaining Schedule Strength
17
Expected Wins
8.2
Not in the playoffs
AFC
North
Conference Seed
13
Remaining Schedule Strength
10
Expected Wins
7.
Not in the playoffs
AFC
West
Conference Seed
14
Remaining Schedule Strength
22
Expected Wins
6.
Not in the playoffs
AFC
East
Conference Seed
15
Remaining Schedule Strength
4
Expected Wins
5.6
Not in the playoffs
AFC
South
Conference Seed
16
Record
3-10
Remaining Schedule Strength
7
Expected Wins
4.2
Not in the playoffs
AFC
East
NFC
Conference Seed
1
Record
10-2
Remaining Schedule Strength
28
Expected Wins
13.4
In the playoffs
NFC
East
Conference Seed
2
Remaining Schedule Strength
20
Expected Wins
12.8
In the playoffs
NFC
West
Conference Seed
5
Remaining Schedule Strength
3
Expected Wins
12.1
In the playoffs
NFC
East
Conference Seed
3
Remaining Schedule Strength
14
Expected Wins
11.9
In the playoffs
NFC
North
Conference Seed
7
Remaining Schedule Strength
31
Expected Wins
9.2
In the playoffs
NFC
North
Conference Seed
4
Remaining Schedule Strength
30
Expected Wins
8.7
In the playoffs
NFC
South
Conference Seed
6
Remaining Schedule Strength
15
Expected Wins
8.3
In the playoffs
NFC
North
Conference Seed
8
Remaining Schedule Strength
18
Expected Wins
8.4
Not in the playoffs
NFC
West
Conference Seed
9
Remaining Schedule Strength
11
Expected Wins
8.4
Not in the playoffs
NFC
West
Conference Seed
11
Remaining Schedule Strength
31
Expected Wins
7.8
Not in the playoffs
NFC
South
Conference Seed
10
Remaining Schedule Strength
25
Expected Wins
7.2
Not in the playoffs
NFC
South
Conference Seed
13
Remaining Schedule Strength
23
Expected Wins
6.2
Not in the playoffs
NFC
North
Conference Seed
12
Remaining Schedule Strength
12
Expected Wins
5.2
Not in the playoffs
NFC
East
Conference Seed
14
Remaining Schedule Strength
4
Expected Wins
5.2
Not in the playoffs
NFC
East
Conference Seed
15
Record
3-10
Remaining Schedule Strength
6
Expected Wins
4.4
Not in the playoffs
NFC
West
Conference Seed
16
Record
1-11
Remaining Schedule Strength
20
Expected Wins
2.5
Eliminated
NFC
South
(Top photo of Tua Tagovailoa: Patrick Smith / Getty Images)
About this story: Development by Marc Mazzoni. Design by Megan McMillan. Design direction by Amy Cavenaile. Support and production by Brooks Varni.
