NFL Week 9 picks against the spread: DK Metcalf will be on target vs. Ravens
Read Vic’s latest NFL picks against the spread.
OK, gather ’round. It’s an exciting time, as the NFL could make history this weekend if the Vikings’ Jaren Hall and the Cardinals’ Clayton Tune take the first snaps for their teams. They would be the eighth and ninth rookie quarterbacks to start a game this season, the most since the 1970 NFL-AFL merger through nine weeks. (We’re not counting the strike year of 1987.)
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We wrote last week about the crappy quarterback play in the NFL this season, and I doubt Hall and Tune are here to save the day. (Hall has been named the Vikings’ starter for Sunday; Tune will start if Kyler Murray isn’t activated from the physically unable to perform list.) It sure doesn’t make my job any easier. We might go against all nine rookies this week, but you will have to keep reading to find out.
You know you are going to read every word, because I was the ice cream truck man last week, handing out all the goodies to a desperate, sweaty, hungry mob. How about 5-0 on best bets, the upset special with the Bengals and a 13-2-1 record overall?
Will we keep riding the Seahawks, Cowboys and Dolphins? (The Jaguars have a bye this week.)
Definitely the Seahawks. Geno Smith had a bad game, and they still won and covered the spread against a tough Browns team. DK Metcalf had only five catches on 14 targets, but then won the game when his block on cornerback Martin Emerson Jr. sprung Jaxon Smith-Njigba for a 9-yard touchdown with 38 seconds left.
THANK YOU, JSN!
📺 FOX
— Seattle Seahawks (@Seahawks) October 29, 2023
You gotta love the effort, and Metcalf will have a big game Sunday against the Ravens, as we expect Smith to bounce back. A whopping 77.8 percent of Metcalf’s receptions go for first downs or touchdowns (fourth in the NFL), but he’s hauled in just 58.7 percent of his targets (117th).
Time to hit some more targets of our own:
Last week: 13-2-1 against the spread, 5-0 on best bets.
Season record: 65-55-1 ATS, 23-17 on best bets.
All odds are from BetMGM and are locked when the pick was made. Click here for live odds.
The way Will Levis went out there last week and started slinging the ball deep, more people are going to start putting mayo in their coffee. His four touchdown passes averaged 39.3 yards per score. (Starter Ryan Tannehill has not connected on a touchdown pass thrown 30-plus yards beyond the line of scrimmage since Week 15 of the 2020 season.) The Steelers, meanwhile, still can’t run the ball — their rushers have been hit at or behind the line of scrimmage on 51.1 percent of their carries, the highest rate in the NFL, while quarterback Kenny Pickett is banged up. But I will take Mike Tomlin and his defense against a rookie quarterback. (By the way, teams starting rookie QBs are 6-5-1 against the spread at home and 3-7 on the road.)
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The pick: Steelers
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Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5) in Frankfurt, Germany | 9:30 a.m. ET Sunday, NFL Network
I like the Chiefs for a couple of reasons. I told you last week they were going to be flat against the Broncos because they had just clinched the AFC West the week before (not officially, but yeah), they had already beaten Denver and Taylor Swift was skipping the game. And they laid an egg. Now it’s time to make an omelet. Patrick Mahomes is 15-3 in games immediately following a loss, including eight straight wins. The Dolphins, meanwhile, lead the NFL in percentage of drives ending in touchdowns (39.3 percent) and offensive EPA per play (0.16), but look closer. In its two games against teams with a winning record (at Bills and at Eagles), Miami has scored TDs on 21.1 percent of its drives (13th) and averaged -0.12 offensive EPA per play (27th). Easy win, and the German fans will be dancing to Swift tunes all day.
The pick: Chiefs
Kirk Cousins finally got his flowers. It took a torn Achilles to do it, but better late than never. The scouting report on Hall is that he has some mobility and a weak arm, and he is probably just a one-week guy until recently added Joshua Dobbs learns some plays and players’ names. I feel like I rotate taking the Falcons every other week, as I like their running game and defensive line but not their head coach or quarterback. I do like the new quarterback, Taylor Heinicke, a little bit better. Taking them at home against the rookie QB.
The pick: Falcons
The Browns don’t know who is starting at QB yet, Deshaun Watson or P.J. Walker. I thought Walker played well last week, if you take away the three turnovers. That’s like saying I enjoyed deep-sea fishing if you took away the non-stop barfing, but there were some really nice moments. The Browns’ defense is the play here — they have allowed an NFL-low 1.1 points per drive on possessions starting at midfield or deeper. And there is a key stat regarding the Cardinals. Arizona is 1-7 despite having led at halftime in four games and posting a plus-12 first-half scoring margin, tied for 12th. You’re reading that the way I am, right? They are due to get pounded in the first half. Especially with … a rookie QB on the road.
The pick: Browns
Matthew Stafford’s thumb is still swollen but he might play Sunday. It seems that sitting him out with a bye week coming up is the prudent move. I don’t know if the Rams can beat the Packers in Green Bay with Brett Rypien at quarterback and Darrell Henderson Jr. and Royce Freeman at running back. But maybe you can. That’s how bad Jordan Love has been, especially in first halves — Green Bay ranks 31st in yards per play differential (-1.9) and last in points per drive differential (-1.6). The Packers have trailed by at least seven points at halftime in each of their last five games. And you want me to lay three points? No thank you.
The pick: Rams
Poor Ron Rivera and Jack Del Rio. They watched Tuesday as the Commanders traded not one, but two of their talented defensive linemen, Montez Sweat and Chase Young. The Commanders will have new coaches next season, but what do you care about that? You want a pick for this game. The thought that Mac Jones is licking his chops and that people are betting on the Patriots is kind of funny. They didn’t score a lot of points before losing receiver Kendrick Bourne for the season. Sam Howell was actually good last week against the Eagles, and I am going to call this a trap line and take the Commanders.
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The pick: Commanders
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The Saints’ offense finally hit some big plays last week — a season-high 16 plays of 10 yards or more and five of 25 yards or more. That doesn’t mean I am going to lose my mind and lay 8.5 points with a team that still has pass-blocking issues and now has to face Sweat. Chicago has pressured QBs at the second-lowest rate in the NFL (27.8 percent of dropbacks), and Sweat’s 87 QB pressures since the start of last season are more than any two Bears players over that span combined. The Bears were already pretty good against the run, and they have to be fired up that their team was actually a buyer at the trade deadline. I don’t know how many points they’re going to score, but I think rookie Tyson Bagent gets us through the backdoor.
The pick: Bears
The Seahawks had to be feeling pretty good after trading second- and fifth-round picks for Leonard Williams to beef up their defensive line. Not as good the next day when the 49ers got Young, a better player, for only a third-rounder, but we digress. Seattle already had a good pass rush (14th-ranked 36.3 percent pressure rate) and is 5-0 in games it pressured opposing QBs on at least 30 percent of their dropbacks. The Ravens have won three games in a row and have divisional games against the Browns and Bengals on deck. Lamar Jackson is playing well and they probably win again. Just not by six.
The pick: Seahawks
C.J. Stroud is coming off a loss to Bryce Young and now has to face another No. 1 draft pick in Baker Mayfield. Stroud didn’t play that well last week, and part of it was the pressure — he averaged a season-low 2.52 seconds from snap to throw — and part of it was that he was off-target on 16.7 percent of his passes, the second-highest rate of the week. The Buccaneers will have to blitz because they don’t get a lot of pressure. They got some extra rest after a Thursday game, and Mayfield has been effective using play action — which should be useful, as the Texans don’t defend the run well. (And Mayfield took a beating in last week’s loss to the Bills and still got the cover for us, so I have a little man crush.)
The pick: Buccaneers
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The Panthers about to go on a run? Their defense is getting healthy, and the rookie Young is starting to get his feet underneath him. Young was 9 of 11 for a season-high 143 yards and a touchdown when Houston blitzed him last week, including 2 of 2 for 24 yards on the game-winning drive. He averaged the third-most yards per attempt against the blitz in Week 8 (13.0) after ranking 31st in the category in his first five games (5.1). Colts QB Gardner Minshew is entertaining but likes to share the ball, and the Panthers make it two in a row.
The pick: Panthers
Jimmy Garoppolo took a beating against the Lions last week and might not be totally bummed that he was benched for this matchup against Kayvon Thibodeaux and the blitz-happy Giants. Aidan O’Connell gets the start, and the Raiders will definitely get a lift from emotional interim coach Antonio Pierce. Can they score 20 points on offense for the first time this season? And can they stop Saquon Barkley and Daniel Jones from running all over them like the Lions did last week? Sure. Maybe one of those things. But not both on a short week with a new coach.
The pick: Giants
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There’s been some great value on the Cowboys since they got blown out by the 49ers. They’ve won and covered against the Chargers and Rams, and now the value is not so great against an Eagles team that was looking past the Commanders last week and right at the Cowboys. I am still taking the Cowboys. I like how Dak Prescott is running more — he has scrambled on 9.2 percent of his dropbacks over the past two games and has more rushing yards (59) than he did in the first five games (45). And he is always looking for CeeDee Lamb, who had a season-high 15 intended touches (targets plus rushes) and gained a career-high 170 scrimmage yards last week while playing more outside and less in the slot. I also feel like people are selling the Cowboys’ pass rush a little short this season, and they will make a dent against a very good Eagles offensive line.
The pick: Cowboys
The Bills have not covered the spread four games in a row, and while Josh Allen looked more like himself last week, I don’t think their defense can slow down red-hot Joe Burrow and the Bengals. The Bills did try and prop up their injured secondary, trading for Packers defensive back Rasul Douglas. Douglas has allowed 6.5 yards per target, more than a yard fewer than any healthy Bills cornerback. The Bills, though, are also not very good against the run, and Joe Mixon might be ready for a breakout game. Fun fact: Burrow is 35-16 ATS when he’s not favored by more than a touchdown.
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The pick: Bengals
The Chargers’ defensive improvement actually goes back to before last week’s win over the Bagent and the Bears. After allowing opponents to convert 45.5 percent of third downs during their 0-2 start (24th in NFL), the Chargers have allowed a 34.9 percent conversion rate since Week 3 (seventh in NFL). Now they get Zach Wilson, who is so hard to watch with his short-hop throws that Jets coach Robert Saleh just stands there emotionless during games. He needs his defense to win games, and while his secondary will slow down Justin Herbert, I don’t think they can handle a rejuvenated Austin Ekeler on runs or catches out of the backfield. This is a trap line — the erratic, shoot-themselves-in-the-foot Chargers are favored back east? — and I am all for it.
The pick: Chargers
Best bets: Chiefs over Dolphins, Falcons beat Vikings, Seahawks hang tough against Ravens, Browns blow out Cardinals and Panthers make it two in a row with a win over the Colts.
Upset special (spread of at least 3 points): Cowboys over Eagles.
— TruMedia research courtesy of NFL editor Jason Starrett.
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(Top photo of DK Metcalf: Steph Chambers / Getty Images)
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