The reasons Palace needed a squad overhaul – and how it’s finally happening
Crystal Palace’s 14th placed finish in 2019-20 was rather unremarkable by all accounts. They finished in their lowest position in the Premier League since 2016-17, won just 11 games — the joint-fewest since returning to the Premier League — and scored 31 goals, their lowest total of all-time.
The one hallmark of the season was the age of this Palace team. The average age of the team on-field (calculated by weighing a player’s age by the share of total minutes that they play) was 28.7, which when contrasted against other recent seasons, makes this by far and away the oldest Palace team of late.
Advertisement
That is not the sign of a sustainable football club. As players get older they, generally, perform worse, are less able to play week-in, week-out and bring the overall quality of the team down. Experience is useful for a team, but not if it’s constantly being out-run, out-jumped and out-scored.
Refreshing a team requires a cash injection, and given both the financial climate and the impact of financial fair play (FFP) on the game, is something that has to take place over several transfer windows, and not as the result of one significant single investment.
Transfer windows are often a frenzy of activity, but very rarely do they present the opportunity to radically overhaul a squad in the way that this summer will for Palace.
At least it ought to provide the building blocks for a revamped squad over the coming seasons. Since Roy Hodgson arrived at Selhurst Park, there has been little change in the personnel at his disposal, but with 13 first-team players now out of contract next summer, Palace’s campaign stuttering to a dismal ending and a group of players desperate for reinforcements, now is both the perfect and most essential time to create something sustainable and effective.
The defence is suited to sitting deep and is capable of passing out from the back, but a relative lack of mobility from the centre-backs (all edging onto the wrong side of 30) hinders their progress in bringing the ball up the pitch themselves.
Joel Ward’s service is commendable and he has been integral in the club’s rise, but football moves on quickly and a more progressive full-back would help Palace in transitions. The hope is that Nathan Ferguson will fill that berth, but he is yet to begin full-contact training with his new team-mates due to the injury that scuppered a January arrival.
The 19-year-old profiles more as a defensive full-back than an attacking one, although he has demonstrated positivity going forward where available. He will likely fill the void left on the right side of defence vacated by Aaron Wan-Bissaka last summer.
Advertisement
Notably, though, he’s been employed more on the left side of West Brom’s defence, making him a versatile defensive option there if required.
The signing of Eberechi Eze from Queens Park Rangers is another step on the road to tackling the issue of Palace’s ageing squad, which is severely lacking in depth. At 22, he is very much in the age range that they need to be, and are now, targeting.
Very few teams have a great hit rate when it comes to transfers, and sometimes it takes two or three attempts to truly replace a player. A team that fails to give itself ample time also risks replacing an ageing player with a younger option who isn’t at that player’s level or doesn’t fit the system. For Palace, this is perhaps borne out in Max Meyer.
The German was signed at 22, and it was hoped he could fill the void left by Yohan Cabaye. As it turned out, there is little body of evidence to prove that he has ever been capable of living up to a “wonderkid” tag, or that he is suited to the style of play under Hodgson, or indeed in the Premier League. He has made just 21 starts in the division and has only very sporadically shown his much-heralded ability. Admittedly, many of those chances have come on the left of midfield rather than his preferred central role, but he has not demonstrated enough, even when he has come off the bench to play as a No 10. He was a gamble worth taking on a free transfer, but one that has failed to pay off.
Hodgson inherited a squad on the cusp of edging over its peak, which has broadly now after three years moved firmly beyond that. This presents a dilemma for Palace. Generally speaking, more experienced players command higher wages, are more at risk from injury, and upset the balance of the squad. In this case, it has been compounded by the absence of new impetus in attack, which Eze ought to begin to address.
Advertisement
There is only a weak correlation between the average age of a team and where they finish. Having an old team doesn’t automatically relegate you, and having a team in its peak doesn’t necessarily make you more likely to challenge for higher mid-table positions. As with many things in football, results occur due to a confluence of factors.
Making a team younger isn’t some sort of magic bullet which improves team performance overnight, but there are a few anecdotal reasons buried within the data which point to why refreshing a squad as old as Palace’s is wise.
There have only been five teams older than Palace’s in the past 10 seasons; Fulham from 2010-11 to 2013-14 and West Bromwich Albion in 2016-17.
Fulham were eventually relegated in 2013-14 after a catastrophic season involving 39 players, three managers, in which they won only nine games. West Brom were relegated the season after (2017-18), and both have taken at least a couple of seasons in the Championship before winning promotion again.
The cost of an ageing squad isn’t just the threat of relegation, but also the threat of a period of sustained absence from the Premier League.
Furthermore, take Watford’s 2018-19 team. This was a side that was the oldest in the league and finished in 11th, yet failed to properly invest in support for Troy Deeney up front or young, quality options at full-back to take on Jose Holebas and Adrian Mariappa’s minutes. Watford have been among the three oldest teams in the league every season since 2015-16, and the age of their squad has finally caught up with them.
On the flip side, consider Norwich City. Taking Tim Krul out of the equation (goalkeepers age a bit slower than other positions), Daniel Farke fielded the fourth-youngest squad in the league. While they failed to maintain their place in the Premier League, they’ve been relegated with a solid core of younger players who will either command relatively high fees in the transfer market or help them challenge in an always-competitive Championship in 2020-21. If they are unable to achieve an instant return to the top flight, they have ample opportunity to cash-in on talent that mostly has experience in that league and has caught the eye. In doing so, they can reinvest that money into a balance of experience and youth, restarting the cycle.
For Palace, with this likely to be Roy Hodgson’s last season, locking in their Premier League place for a ninth consecutive year and building for the future is paramount. The risks of failing to achieve either could be damaging for the club, and not just in the short term.
Advertisement
Their squad is starting to shape up for the season ahead. In the squad depth chart below, each player is put in their most common or likely position and coloured depending on their current status. Given the number of greyed out players, there are either plenty of contracts (or replacements) to be signed. This is a squad that looks thin on the surface, but dive a little deeper, and it’s clear that Palace desperately need a revamp.
Eze and Ferguson, both England Under-21 internationals, have already arrived. Eze offers plenty of positional versatility and he’s been used across the midfield for QPR. In Palace’s 3-0 victory over Charlton Athletic in their second pre-season friendly, he looked promising in a slightly free version of a left-midfield role in a 4-4-2 set-up. That, perhaps, is not the position that suits him best, but he demonstrated ample willingness to probe forwards and linked up well with Wilfried Zaha. His first touch and ball control are exceptional, but it is the way he shifts his body weight that will give defenders problems.
The headache for Hodgson will be to find a position that gets the most out of him. At QPR in the last two seasons, he has played mostly either out on the left or as a No 10 behind the striker. Looking at how his data compares across these two positions though, he looks stronger when playing in the middle, and that is supported by the comments from his former team-mates.
His expected assists, which measure the quality of the chances he creates, is the same across the two positions (0.19 per 90 minutes) but he gets more touches inside the box when playing centrally versus out wide (3.0 vs 2.5 per 90), gets into slightly better shooting positions (0.23 vs 0.2 expected goals per 90) and also attempts more passes into the penalty area (3.1 vs 2.6). Eze, seemingly, has been more effective down the middle compared to his output on the wings, and that’s impressive given he did it with fewer touches (56 vs 62 per 90).
At QPR, Eze was the main man — he got more touches than any other attacking player. Hodgson, however, has Zaha at his disposal and will have to find a way to ensure both free-spirited attackers get enough of the ball to be effective.
Palace’s midfield was also the second-oldest in the league (28 years old) after Norwich (28.3 years old), so needs a refresh. One option they are close to securing on loan is another England youth international, Conor Gallagher, who is set to follow up his successful loan spell at Swansea City last season with a temporary spell in the top flight.
Gallagher’s dynamism and ability to attack as a box-to-box midfielder or deep-lying passer would be a great addition to Palace’s midfield and another piece to help gradually build for the future.
Another option who might be able to add some attacking threat for Palace is Ryan Fraser, who has yet to find a club since leaving Bournemouth before the league finished in July.
Advertisement
Fraser’s seven goals and 14 assists in the 2018-19 season were impressive. He failed to hit those heights last year but his attacking form has nevertheless still been promising. For a wide midfielder, he’s been great at progressing the ball forward and contributing to scoring opportunities — the issue for Palace, if they can conclude a deal, is where on the pitch he fits, and whether they can do something about his clear lack of defensive output.
The youthful revolution continues, with targets including Ipswich Town’s 21-year-old midfielder Flynn Downes — Palace have had two offers rejected for him, the latest worth £2 million — and Bochum centre-back Armel Bella-Kotchap, who has only a dozen senior appearances to his name in the German second division. It is understood Palace’s offer for the 18-year-old is close to meeting Bochum’s valuation. These are not players set to immediately challenge for a spot in the first team, but ones to develop for the future, ready to step in as cover when required or to continue their progression out on loan.
Palace’s transfer window may not appease everyone. A striker is vitally important and if they can identify an immediate first-team option who has the potential to improve — as well as signing Kotchap, Downes and Gallagher — then there is every reason for optimism. It is the attack that requires more strengthening, even with the signing of Eze.
Pre-season is not necessarily an indication of how a team will set-up when league fixtures get underway, but assuming this is the case for Palace, it identifies various possible approaches to formations. A 4-4-1-1 set-up was favoured early on against Oxford United, while a 4-4-2 was utilised against Charlton. With Eze added to the ranks, Schlupp able to operate centrally or on the left, Ayew an option as a centre-forward or on the right and Andros Townsend content to play on the right of a three in attack or a four in midfield, suddenly there are difficult choices to be made.
The possible concern would be over the quality of those options. After all, many of these players were part of the team that struggled so much at the end of the season and scored precious few goals. Given his goal and assist numbers and underlying statistics, Fraser would likely add that required quality if he signed.
This window may not resolve the multitude of problems that have crept up on Palace. But if a few astute signings are added to the pair already confirmed, the building blocks will be in place.
The last era has finished. Here is the start of Palace’s transitional period. The club’s hierarchy is acutely aware of the importance of reducing the average age and the need to freshen up the squad.
Advertisement
Targeting younger talent externally and investing in the academy internally is all part of the plan to build a more sustainable club with greater balance.
(Top photo: Sebastian Frej/MB Media/Getty Images)
