The trade market, Elly De La Cruz’s splits, Joey Votto’s option: Reds mailbag
CINCINNATI — The nine Reds players who took the field Wednesday as the club sought to end a six-game losing streak averaged just 25 years and 137 days old.
According to Bally Sports statistician Joel Luckhaupt, that’s the youngest starting lineup the Reds have fielded in a game before September (when rosters expand) since July 7, 1970. That lineup, led by a 29-year-old Pete Rose, averaged 25 years, 133 days old.
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That statistic shocked TJ Friedl, the Reds’ center fielder, especially considering he is less than a month shy of his 28th birthday. When he looked around in the field, it hit him that only the man to his left, right fielder Jake Fraley, was older.
“I have barely over a year of service time and I looked around the field and was like, ‘I guess I’m one of the older guys now,’” Friedl said after the Reds snapped their losing streak with a 3-2 victory over the Giants Wednesday.
That 1970 team would go to the World Series that year, losing to the Orioles. The core of that team, with some tweaking, would reach the World Series again in 1972 before winning titles in 1975 and 1976.
Wednesday, the Reds started rookies at each infield position for the first time since Sept. 30, 1992, when now-bench coach Freddie Benavides started at shortstop in a win over the Dodgers in the final week of the season.
Despite so much youth on the roster, it doesn’t actually seem like a young team, even amid a losing streak.
“I don’t think of our team as being young,” said manager David Bell.
Will Benson, the No. 9 hitter, hit a three-run homer in the third inning that accounted for all Reds scoring.
“Every day I come in and there’s no change in energy, there’s no change in how we operate amongst one another, it’s just another day,” Benson said. “(Spencer Steer) is still being goofy, TJ is always coming in with a smile — it’s the same guys every day, so it doesn’t really matter.”
I’ve noticed that too. The energy around the team was actually the subject of one of the questions asked in this mailbag — a somewhat unconventional mailbag, since I had first asked for questions before the start of the second half and then pushed it back, and then asked again for questions this week. Truth is, though, it didn’t really change many of my answers. So, I’ll start with that one, and reinforce the point:
In your estimation, have the clubhouse vibes been negatively affected by the losing streak (at 6 games as I send this)? Or is the team still doing their normal thing and confident things will turn around?
As a second question, any news on trade discussions? My personal assumption was Newman was being shopped pretty seriously, leading to his 10-day IL stint for gastritis, but I was curious if that was true. — Will P.
Honestly, the clubhouse seemed the same. They weren’t happy about losing, but nobody was crying in their beer. I think everyone realized winning every game was unsustainable. I think these vibes go deeper than recent results.
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Elly De La Cruz is Elly De La Cruz when he’s hitting for the cycle and when he was in an 0-for-18 slump. That’s one of the parts about his makeup that I’ve heard from scouts, coaches and teammates — he’s always excited to play, always upbeat, always cheering for his team and always looking for things he can do beyond a box score to help the team win. It’s the same way for the likes of Matt McLain, Spencer Steer and Andrew Abbott. It’s one of the reasons the organization has been so high on the future of those players, and by extension, this team. They’ve all exhibited that throughout their careers and are expected to continue.
As for trades, at the big-league level, I’d expect the Reds are listening on Newman, as well as both backup catchers and Nick Senzel. All four have value. But I’m not sure just how much those guys will be a priority for other teams until closer to the deadline. Newman has had tests for his gastritis, but is already feeling better. He was also able to backdate his IL stint. One other note about Newman, he has an option remaining.
Despite them by no means being old, I can’t be the only one that sees India and Stephenson as vets that are more “in the way” than I expected.
I understand culture is important, but if we are honest we aren’t really contending this year. I’m amped to just be competitive. So wouldn’t it perhaps be prudent to seek a return for either of them now? They both certainly have value, but we also need 2B cleared and I’m not so sure anymore we couldn’t replace Stephenson’s value with one of the Triple-A guys that are better defenders and making solid offensive gains. — Kyle A.
There is great, young talent on the team, but I’d have to be blown away by an offer to give up either of those two.
India is interesting, because as I noted earlier this year (and received some pushback that is kind of funny in retrospect), his positional future is cloudy. It helps that Spencer Steer can play just about anything but catcher, it seems (and I joked with David Bell recently that Steer was likely his emergency catcher and he admitted that had come up), but it’d be a huge hit to lose India in the lineup and clubhouse. He’s been a big piece of this success.
That said, I do see him as more likely to be moved than Stephenson. For one, Stephenson’s value may be at a relative low, and you don’t want to trade a guy in that situation unless you have to. The Reds don’t have to. Secondly, I wouldn’t be so sure about anyone in the system being better either offensively or defensively at the position. The biggest jump in baseball is Triple A to the majors, and that goes double for the catching position. If the Reds had anyone at Triple A they thought was better than Curt Casali or Luke Maile, they’d likely be here already. They are not.
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My money is on both being in the starting lineup next Opening Day.
If Votto continues at hitting as well as he has so far this season (lower average, but big pop and high OPS), what are the chances the Reds bring him back for one final season, even if that means they have to restructure the team option for next season?
The infield and DH spots seem pretty full right now with the latest CES callup. — Raymond M.
The infield and DH spots are going to get more crowded with Noelvi Marte on the horizon too. It’ll be interesting to see what happens going forward with these young players and their positions and playing time.
One good thing, I think, is that the Reds have moved these guys around defensively in the minors. It’s one thing to be able to play different positions, another to actually do it and be used to it.
As for Votto, it’s one of the big questions. He has a $20 million team option that doesn’t seem likely to be exercised. He does have a $7 million buyout if the Reds don’t exercise that option. Is there somewhere in the middle that seems like it would be a good compromise?
Much of it lies with Votto and what he wants and values. I do know that if he believes he can contribute, he will want to continue to play. I also know that spending his entire career in one uniform is important to him. I don’t know if it supersedes other considerations (playing time, money, opportunity, etc.) but it is important. It’s really going to be the most fascinating decision of the offseason.
I was thinking about Christian Encarnacion-Strand and wondered if it would make sense to bring him up and feature him mostly as a DH. Sure, that puts Stephenson at catcher only and takes his bat out of the lineup more often, but isn’t CES’ bat more valuable if what he’s done at Triple A even remotely translates to the big leagues? Is there a reason he’s not up yet? — Seth S.
Since this question was asked, things have changed. Encarnacion-Strand is now up in the big leagues. A big reason why it took this long was that he was asked to cut down on his chase rate. Encarnacion-Strand is an extraordinary bad-ball hitter, not quite Vladimir Guerrero Sr., but who is?
According to Nick Krall, his chase rate went from 49.5 percent to 38.5 percent over the last month. That’s still too high, but also represents significant improvement. He’d cut down on his strikeouts and increased his walks. It’s the same thing the team asked Elly De La Cruz to do and he responded and was called up.
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For now, I’d expect the team to just sprinkle in days off and rotate those through each player. To me, there are 10 core roster members and they will each sit one every nine games and also rotate the DH spot. It works out and involves some shuffling, but there’s redundancy at each position and that allows everyone to play quite a bit.
Just curious on what you think the long-term plans are for Elly as far as his defensive position? Entrenched at 3B? SS? An eventual move to OF like Tatis? — David T.
Here’s the thing about De La Cruz: he could probably do just about anything on a baseball field. I wouldn’t put him behind the plate, but other than that? I dunno. I’d love to see him off the mound.
That said, I think shortstop is the primary spot and then third base is a secondary spot. I know some who wanted him in center last year and think he’d be an extraordinary center fielder. I could also see him using his arm in right.
That said, he delivers the most value at shortstop.
I can see an eventual infield of Christian Encarnacion-Strand at first base, Matt McLain at second base, Elly De La Cruz at short and Noelvi Marte at third base.
My question is about Elly’s splits hitting right v left. We know he had a slow start hitting from the right in the majors, but I haven’t heard anyone talk about his splits from the minors. — Eric G.
It’s hard, because De La Cruz doesn’t really have that much minor-league data and it’s tough to really look at splits there, because you just don’t see the same level of pitching. In the majors, the switch-hitter definitely has had a dramatic split, with a .295/.348/.514 in 115 plate appearances when hitting from the left side against right-handed pitching, and a .268/.268/.317 mark in 41 plate appearances when hitting righty versus left-handed pitchers.
That said, this year at Triple A he hit .309/.356/.489 as a right-handed batter with three homers in 101 plate appearances, and .294/.377/.597 with 13 homers in 231 plate appearances hitting from the left side.
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Split between High A and Double A last season, he hit .280/.336/.427 with five homers in 155 righty plate appearances and .312/.367/.645 with 22 homers in 357 lefty plate appearances.
His 118.8-mph double in Triple A this season was right-handed. In that same game, he also had a homer he hit at 117.1 mph right-handed.
That type of power and skill as a switch hitter is something you don’t give up on this early.
When are the Reds going to give Elly one billion dollars? — Zach H.
Hopefully right after they give me a billion dollars. Actually, I’m OK with anyone giving me $1 billion. I’m not picky where it comes from.
Was there ever any thought to try to extend EDLC prior to his call-up? What does the timeline look like now? Krall talks about the Rays as a model, but the ship has already sailed on a Wander deal and Elly hasn’t done as much as Tatis so is Julio the best comp? And of course it’s a two-way street but I imagine the earlier the offer the more likely he would be to accept, particularly with the Baseball Advance payment to consider. — Tyler B.
First off, he’s a Scott Boras client.
Boras talked to Andy McCullough, then of the Los Angeles Times, in 2019 in response to the deals signed by Ronald Acuña Jr., Blake Snell and Eloy Jiménez and said this:
“Great young players are getting what I call ‘snuff contracts.’ And a snuff contract is that they’re trying to snuff out the market. They know the player is a great player, and he’s exhibited very little performance. So they’re coming to him at 20 and 21, and I’m going to snuff out your ability to move, to go anywhere, to do anything, and your value. And I’m going to pay you maybe 40 cents on the dollar to do it. What’s my risk?”
He called Acuña’s deal “the king of the snuff contracts.”
I’m sure he’d have some kind of even greater hyperbole to describe any potential De La Cruz contract.
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Boras has pushed back on the idea that he will stand in the way of a long-term contract if a player and team both want it, using Xander Bogaerts’ extension with Boston, Elvis Andrus and Stephen Strasburg as examples in McCullough’s piece. It is, in a way, interesting to see how all of those played out.
As for the money De La Cruz owes Big League Impact, I’ll go back to my first point: He has Scott Boras as his agent. I don’t tend to worry about the financial future of players represented by Scott Boras.
Elly De La Cruz is going to be a Red for a while. It’s best to enjoy the show.
(Top photo of Votto and De La Cruz: Greg Fiume / Getty Images)
