After loss to Browns, can 49ers trust rookie kicker Jake Moody come playoff time?
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(Editor’s note: This is excerpted from Mike Sando’s Pick Six of Oct. 16, 2023.)
The San Francisco 49ers raised eyebrows among some when they used their second-highest pick in the 2023 draft — a third-round choice, 99th overall — for a kicker. The selection of Michigan’s Jake Moody gave the 49ers a cost-effective successor to veteran Robbie Gould. General manager John Lynch called Moody a potentially “foundational” player whose stock in the draft was so high, other teams were trying to trade ahead of San Francisco for a shot at him.
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The investment was risky because when kickers struggle, teams sometimes cannot wait long before making a switch. Who do you want lining up the potential winning kick in a Super Bowl? It’s an interesting question in a season that has seen Moody and Saints rookie Blake Grupe miss game-winning tries, but the data could be on the 49ers’ side.
| FGA Dist | Rookies | Veterans |
|---|---|---|
<33 Yds | 97% [31-32] | 94% [330-351] |
34-44 Yds | 75% [21-28] | 82% [230-279] |
45-50 Yds | 78% [7-9] | 73% [121-165] |
51-55 Yds | 100% [8-8] | 59% [33-56] |
56+ Yds | 0% [0-1] | 55% [6-11] |
Totals | 86% [67-78] | 84% [720-862] |
The table above shows field-goal make rates in postseason since 2000 for rookie kickers vs. veterans. The numbers stack up pretty evenly across various distance cutoffs. Based on these numbers, there’s no statistical indication rookies are less effective in the postseason.
“Playoff teams have a different aura, different feel in the locker room,” a veteran evaluator said. “Percentages are one thing, but who is the guy who trots out there to try the game-winner? It’s a different pressure shooting free throws up by 20, down by 20, than in that type of situation.”
Fans might recall Colts rookie Rodrigo Blankenship missing from 33 yards in a 27-24 playoff defeat to Buffalo after the 2020 season. They might recall Kansas City rookie Harrison Butker missing from 48 in a 22-21 playoff loss to Tennessee three years earlier, or the Chargers’ Nate Kaeding missing from 40 yards in overtime against the Jets in the wild-card round following the 2005 season.
The NFL has seen plenty of rookies kick effectively in the postseason as well. The 2021 Bengals reached the Super Bowl with rookie Evan McPherson making all 14 postseason tries. The 2017 Eagles won a Super Bowl with rookie kicker Jake Elliott performing well. The 2012 Ravens won it all when Justin Tucker was a rookie. The 2006 Patriots trusted rookie Stephen Gostkowski. The 49ers have to hope Moody fits that profile.
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