CNN.com - GoldDerby.com's Tom O'Neil: Handicapping awards season
(CNN) -- Awards season has begun. The Grammy nominations were announced Friday; the American Film Institute followed Saturday by handing out their first annual awards. They'll be followed by the American Music Awards, the Golden Globes, the Directors Guild nominations, the Screen Actors Guild nominations, and -- on February 12 -- the Oscar nominations.
"CNN Sunday Morning" anchor Martin Savidge talked with Tom O'Neil, host of the handicapping and informational Web site GoldDerby.com and author of "Movie Awards" to talk about all the honors.
MARTIN SAVIDGE, CNN ANCHOR: Which nominees are most likely to walk away with a Grammy? We've got a guest to give us his Grammy predictions, as well as some thoughts on the AFI awards.
Tom O'Neil is the author of "Movie Awards" and a host of GoldDerby.com. He joins us now from New York.
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Good morning to you.
TOM O'NEIL, AUTHOR, "MOVIE AWARDS": Thanks for having me, Martin.
SAVIDGE: The AFI Awards -- we'll start with them since they've already been. I've obviously heard about this organization, but their awards, is this something new?
O'NEIL: This is brand new, and it's really controversial because the AFI are introducing their awards before everybody else's, including two weeks before the Golden Globes, which normally kick off the season. And they speak with the voice of the film industry itself, because this is Hollywood's lobby group in Washington, D.C.
So the question hangs over the entire derby that we're about to begin here: is it already over with? How can the Oscars possibly disagree with that other voice in their own industry?
SAVIDGE: Do we need another movies presentation or awards presentation program?
O'NEIL: Probably not. Right now we have more than 35 award shows in prime time television. And if one breaks the camel's back, it could be AFI.
SAVIDGE: Well, at any rate, it looks like -- you know, I thought maybe they'd be something new. They might be cutting edge, they might give us some -- some out-there type awards for films perhaps most of us didn't think about. But they didn't. They went fairly conservative, didn't they?
O'NEIL: They went conservative in some categories, like for Sissy Spacek for best actress. But I think there was a major surprise for Denzel Washington as best actor in "Training Day."
And "Lord of the Rings" victory as best picture is a surprise, in a way, because what the AFI is doing by sanctioning this by the best of the year is telling us it's not just a film fantasy, it's not just a kid's movie, this is major cinema.
If this goes all the way to March 24 at the Academy Awards, it will be the very first film fantasy every to win the top Oscar. Remember, "E.T." lost to "Gandhi" and "Star Wars" lost to "Annie Hall."
SAVIDGE: One of the movies I was surprised did not get an award even though it was nominated [was] "Black Hawk Down."
O'NEIL: Yes, I think a lot of us expected it to be there because not only did it get great reviews, it seems to speak to our times right now. Often these awards like to acknowledge that. And Ridley Scott, the director of this film, remember, swept the Oscars last year with "Gladiator."
SAVIDGE: And then you mentioned best actress. I thought Halle Berry had a shot.
O'NEIL: I thought Halle Berry was going to win, yes. And I think we may see her come back at the Golden Globes in a few weeks. So hang in there -- Halle could still go all the way to the Oscars.
SAVIDGE: All right. Well, let's move on now to the Grammys. And there, again, it seems like the nominations fall along somewhat predictable lines, or do you disagree?
O'NEIL: They're very predictable in terms of U2. U2 has dominated the Grammys all the way going back to 1988, when they won album of the year for "Joshua Tree." They won best record last year for "Beautiful Day." And now here they come, probably, with an album that is the front-runner for best album this year, and they certainly swept the nominations. They had the most, with eight.
SAVIDGE: Well who else do you like there? Was there a surprise or someone that you thought got a nom that perhaps you didn't expect?
O'NEIL: Well the big jaw-dropper, of course, was India.Arie and how well she did at the nominations. She scored the most bids among solo artists, seven, which was one more than Alicia Keys, who we thought was going to be the R&B diva that would dominate these nominations.
India.Arie became a star really thanks to September 11 and the duet she did with John Mellencamp, "Peaceful World." And once she got on everybody's radar screen with that, they decided she's pretty good. And the Grammys now have maybe a case of a showbiz Cinderella here, and what we saw at Grammy nominations Friday morning was a classic case of "A Star Is Born."
SAVIDGE: Well, all right, I'm going to use a name that probably makes all music lovers cringe: 'N Sync. No nominations, nothing. And, yet -- I mean, they have a huge influence on music; they're listened to by millions around the world. What about groups like that? Is it that we're just so highbrow they don't get in?
O'NEIL: Well that was, I think, the biggest story among the Grammy nominations this year -- there was no bubble-gum in there. And we're used to seeing 'N Sync, Backstreet Boys and Britney Spears do well at the Grammys in recent years. I think what we saw across the board in the top categories was that the music world is as serious these days as the whole world after September 11, and what we've got is very serious music up for the top awards.
SAVIDGE: Yes, well maybe we got a little too serious. All right.
O'NEIL: Maybe so.
SAVIDGE: Tom O'Neil, he is the author of "Movie Awards" and the host of GoldDerby.com. Again, nice talking with you, and thanks for coming in.
O'NEIL: Thank you, Marty.
