Colts and Will Levis: Can Josh Allen comparisons convince Indy to draft the QB?
There are two huge questions looming over the Colts as the NFL Draft approaches: Which quarterback should they select? And should they trade up to get him?
Indianapolis has the No. 4 pick and is poised to finally end its quarterback carousel in April’s draft, but there’s a strong chance that Alabama’s Bryce Young and Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud — rated as the top two signal callers in this year’s class — won’t be on the board if the team stays put.
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The Texans will likely draft a quarterback at No. 2, and QB-needy teams like the Raiders (No. 7) and Panthers (No. 9) may try to trade up with the Bears at No. 1 — unless the Colts act first. In my first mock draft, I had Indianapolis trade this year’s Nos. 4 and 35 picks, a fifth-round pick and next year’s first-round pick to land the No. 1 selection, which the team used to select Young.
Indianapolis is facing one of its biggest decisions in franchise history as it prepares to draft a QB in the first round for the first time since Andrew Luck.@RomeovilleKid explores a Colts-Bears trade for the first pick — and Bryce Young.
— The Athletic NFL (@TheAthleticNFL) February 22, 2023
Some believe that is too much to give up for the 5-foot-10 Young, who would join Kyler Murray as just the second quarterback under six feet to be the No. 1 pick. However, NFL Network draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah projected an arguably steeper price for the No. 1 selection based on years of studying the draft. In his projected trade, the Colts would swap pick Nos. 4 and No. 35, and a 2024 first- and second-rounder for the No. 1 pick and a 2024 fourth-rounder from the Bears.
“I would not be sleeping well at night if I was just going to sit and hold tight there at No. 4,” Jeremiah added during a Zoom media availability Friday.
If Indianapolis were to stay put and miss out on Young and Stroud, Kentucky’s Will Levis and Florida’s Anthony Richardson are the next two QB options, with the latter viewed as the biggest project with perhaps the highest ceiling. For this piece, though, I focused on Levis, whose drawn comparisons to Bills quarterback Josh Allen.
Levis is 6-foot-4 and weighs 230 pounds, while Allen is 6-foot-5 and weighs 237 pounds. Levis, like Allen, is mobile and has a cannon arm, which should be appealing to Colts general manager Chris Ballard and his longstanding affinity for impressive physical traits. Both quarterbacks were also late bloomers in college, went through coaching changes after establishing themselves and dealt with injuries during their final college seasons. But it still feels to me like Levis becoming Allen 2.0 in the NFL is a long-shot, best-case scenario and maybe not the most realistic.
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With that in mind, I asked Jeremiah and three members of The Athletic’s college football staff: Nick Baumgardner, Seth Emerson and Chris Vannini — who’ve watched Levis a lot more than I have — these two questions:
1. What is your general evaluation of Levis?
2. Besides Allen, which current NFL quarterback would you compare Levis to?
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Here’s what they said with the NFL Scouting Combine beginning Tuesday:
Jeremiah’s evaluation: “You start with the sacks and the turnovers. I mean, that’s the cause for concern. That’s the flag. So, you’ve got to navigate that, and you’ve got to dig into that if you are a team and talk to him and sit down and watch the tape and go through it and see if you can learn some things. Not all that stuff is going to be on him. When you look at some of the turnovers, there’s a good number of tipped throws. When you look at the sacks, the offensive line wasn’t very good in front of him this year, and there’s some blown protection. I would want to sit there and go through all the sacks and turnovers when you sit down with him because it is a big number and it needs to be explained. I don’t think that’s all on him.
“The injury thing is another one. I mean, I don’t want to go through and try and excuse away some issues, but when I watched him, I did not like when he was working to the left side of the field. I thought he was closed off. I thought he threw against (his body). Then I come to find out after I’ve watched the tape that he had a messed-up toe, he had a messed-up shoulder, and I think that impacted that to a degree. But the things that you can’t refute, he has a strong arm. He is a really good athlete. Especially the year before when he is healthy. You can see him as a runner. You can use him on some design quarterback run stuff as well as him just organically making things happen.
“He is tough. He hangs in there and takes shots. There are some times where I wish he would feel things better on the back side. Every time he gets hit, it’s a surprise party. I wish he just had a little bit better feel to get up and get away from some of those things. But toughness is not an issue at all. He can make every type of throw you want. It’s digging in on some of the issues to figure out what the deal is with him and why some of those things happen in terms of the turnovers and the sacks.”
Jeremiah’s NFL QB comparison: “As an athlete, I think there’s some comparison to Ryan Tannehill when he was coming out. I think you look at his frame, Dak Prescott is one. I think that’s a fair comp for him. Same conference, same build, same toughness. The stuff on Dak, when you talk to the coaches there — worker, intelligent, tough, winner. You’ll hear all those exact same things said about Levis. They rave about him. As I think about it, that might end up being the best comparison.”
Will Levis had 23 INTs the past two seasons…
here are 7 of them
— Mike Renner (@PFF_Mike) February 21, 2023
Baumgardner’s evaluation: “Levis’ arm is as good as it gets in this class, perhaps the best. He can rip it from pretty much any angle, which often gets him into trouble— but can also get him out of trouble. His inconsistency as a passer mostly stems from inconsistent footwork and way too much reliance on his howitzer of an arm. Footwork can be coached and honed and improved upon. Levis’ inconsistencies take ownership for a share of his miscues last season. But Kentucky’s offense was also a mess compared to the year prior, and Levis was a bit banged up. There’s risk, but the reward is obvious when you see him throw.”
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Baumgardner’s NFL’s QB comparison: “Athletically, I think he’ll wind up testing somewhere close to what Geno Smith registered when he came out about 10 years ago. Levis is in the 6-foot-2/6-foot-3 range, 220-230 pounds. He has good speed and foot quickness at his size and is a capable runner, though he needs to remember he’s better from a pocket.
“Smith is probably faster in the 40, but Levis is probably bigger and won’t have many athletic holes to his game (be it agility or explosion). He needs to be more disciplined with his feet, though. In and out of the pocket.”
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Emerson’s evaluation: “I saw Levis against Georgia twice. The first time in 2021, he made zero impression, positive or negative. I actually had to look back to make sure he was Kentucky’s QB in that game. (He was, attempting 42 passes but only for 192 yards.) But given all the hype over Levis, I was well aware of him going into last year’s game, and was expecting to dismiss him. And yet, while his stats weren’t eye-popping (206 yards, one TD, one interception), I was actually somewhat impressed. In a swirling wind, Levis made some good throws. Now, was I impressed enough to think he should be the No. 1 pick? Heck no. Even a first-round pick seems a reach. But he seems a decent prospect, even if overrated by the scouts.”
Emerson’s NFL QB comparison: “Mitch Trubisky is the one that jumps to mind, not even so much in measurables, but the situation. Trubisky was the No. 2 pick the year after he played Georgia, and I also found that confounding. I get that this isn’t a science, that evaluating and projecting quarterbacks is hard, especially guys like Levis who haven’t had a lot of talent around them and have played in several different systems. But as a jaded college football writer, I look at a lot of these prospects and say: ‘Wait, shouldn’t how they perform in college mean something, especially when it’s at the highest level of college?'”
Vannini’s evaluation: “It really is wild to look back on the start of Levis’ college career, when he was basically only used as a battering ram, run-only quarterback at Penn State. The coaches never let him open things up, so he went to Kentucky and finally got to do that. While he was pretty good and certainly showed raw tools, he was never a quarterback who put a team on his back to win a huge game. If you asked me for his standout performance in college, I couldn’t tell you. He only once threw for more than 250 yards against a Power 5 team. Accuracy was an issue, and he got hit a lot.”
Vannini’s NFL QB comparison (unsure but not Allen): “It’s easy to see the comparisons to Allen, who only once threw for 300 yards against an FBS team. But Allen was a far less accurate quarterback in college than Levis was (56.2 percent versus 64.9 percent), and Allen had horrible performances against the few Power 5 teams he faced. Levis, while lacking standout performances, had plenty of solid-to-good performances on teams typically much less talented than the opponent. But the thing to remember about Allen is that he truly was a unicorn. College quarterbacks never get more accurate when they get into the NFL. Allen’s improvement in the NFL was basically unprecedented, and I wouldn’t make a top-10 draft pick thinking you can find that same kind of luck.”
(Photo: Jay Biggerstaff / Getty Images)
