Cowboys vs. Bills analysis: Huge road test, containing Josh Allen and predictions
The Dallas Cowboys (10-3) have won five consecutive games, and their 33-13 win against the Philadelphia Eagles last week pulled them even with the Eagles at the top of the NFC East standings.
The Buffalo Bills (7-6) got a much-needed win at Kansas City last week and sit just outside the AFC playoff field. A win at home Sunday against the Cowboys would be huge for Josh Allen and company.
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For the Cowboys, the game Sunday at Highmark Stadium is a huge test. Dallas is 7-0 this season at home and has won 15 consecutive games at AT&T Stadium. But the Cowboys are 3-3 on the road this season with an early-season loss at the Arizona Cardinals (3-10), a lopsided 42-10 loss at the San Francisco 49ers and a close, 28-23 loss at Philadelphia. After the trip to Buffalo, Dallas visits the Miami Dolphins next week.
We asked The Athletic’s Cowboys beat writers Jon Machota and Saad Yousuf for their thoughts on the 4:25 p.m. ET matchup. Here’s what they said:
1. Rank your top three most impressive Cowboys wins this season.
Machota: 1. Sunday night over the Philadelphia Eagles. 2. Week 13 over the Seattle Seahawks 3. Week 1 over the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium. The win at the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 6 was in consideration, but they are nowhere near the team we thought they would end up being this season. The Giants aren’t anything special, either, but to open the season on the road with just a dominant 40-0 win was impressive. The Seahawks game was second because that’s one the Cowboys could have easily lost and Seattle is a quality opponent. The Cowboys were down but found a way to fight back in the final 12 minutes. Last week’s game was easily No. 1. Considering the division race would basically be over with a loss and knowing how good the Eagles have been this season, defeating the defending NFC champs was by far Dallas’ biggest win this season.
Yousuf: Sunday’s win over the Eagles at AT&T Stadium is one of the most impressive regular-season wins in recent memory for the Cowboys, so that takes the top ranking. That one is self-explanatory given the Eagles’ record and the fact they were pretty much at full strength. The Cowboys didn’t just win, they dominated. I would give the edge for the second-most impressive win to be the 20-17 win over the Chargers. Dallas was coming off of a stunning blowout loss to the San Francisco 49ers that was demoralizing. It had to play on the road — a term used loosely when the Cowboys are playing at SoFi — against a good quarterback and a then-decent Chargers team, with a bye looming on the other side of it. Plenty of reasons to lose focus and falter, but they pulled it out. Finally, the win over the Seahawks was great for confidence to know they could not only beat a playoff-caliber team but also that the offense could engage in a shootout type of game.
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2. The Buffalo Bills are fighting for a playoff spot. How dangerous does that make them?
Machota: Extremely dangerous. Sure, they’re 7-6, far from where most expected a Super Bowl contender this late in the season. But they’ve had some bad fortune while losing several close games. They’ve lost twice in overtime, and their other four losses have been by an average of only 4.25 points per game. There’s a reason they’re still favored Sunday. They’re a better team at home, but they’d still be a significant challenge if this game were being played at AT&T Stadium.
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Yousuf: The Bills are a dangerous team no matter where they are in the standings, as long as Josh Allen is behind center. Add in the fact they are fighting for their playoff lives and they get this game at home and this makes for a very dangerous game for the Cowboys. The elements aren’t expected to be terrible, which is good news for the road team, but Bills Mafia will still give the Cowboys a true road atmosphere. Even though the Bills have suffered through some injuries this season, they still have plenty of playmakers on both sides of the ball.
3. Josh Allen provides a huge challenge to the Dallas defense. How do they go about defending him?
Machota: Keep him in the pocket. Don’t allow him to get out and make plays with his feet, whether that’s as a runner or extending plays in the passing game. There is a reason he has turned the ball over 17 times (14 interceptions, three lost fumbles). He plays the game on the edge, somewhat similar to Brett Favre. The opportunities will likely be there to take the ball away. The Cowboys have been the league’s best in that area over the last three seasons. They must capitalize on those opportunities Sunday. This has the makings of a big game for second-year cornerback DaRon Bland. Allen won’t be afraid to challenge the NFL’s interceptions leader.
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Yousuf: It’s one of the things that fascinates me most. The first key is to stay disciplined and maintain integrity with the pass-rush gaps. If Allen gets an opening anywhere, he’s a threat to tuck it and run or scramble behind the line of scrimmage and buy time for a play downfield. Secondly, as basic as it sounds, the Cowboys have to bring him down when they get their hands on him. Allen is a big quarterback and his stature presents a major problem, and that’s before you get to his bulldog tenacity, which makes him so hard to tackle. The Cowboys defense is talented in its own right, so I believe it will try to beat Allen with its brand, but if he becomes a threat on the ground, I could see Dan Quinn putting a spy on him.
4. The Cowboys have won five in a row, and Dak Prescott is on a serious hot streak. What’s the key to keeping him cooking?
Machota: Keep him as clean as possible. It’s not a coincidence he has played his best ball when Dallas’ best five offensive linemen have all been healthy. If they can give Prescott time, he should be able to find CeeDee Lamb. Everything else falls into place after that in the passing game. If the weather ends up being an issue, getting the running game going would also go a long way. It looked pretty good last week against Philadelphia. A big game from Tony Pollard would be great for Prescott. However, Dallas’ worst two games on the ground this season have come outdoors, at San Francisco and at Philadelphia.
Yousuf: The offensive line, the offensive line and the offensive line. The playmakers are great. CeeDee Lamb is a bona fide No. 1 receiver, and Jake Ferguson is coming into his own. Brandin Cooks has been more involved, and Michael Gallup always has a spot with Prescott. But the biggest key to the entire operation looking the way it has in recent months is the continuity from the offensive line. When those five starters are healthy and playing together, the unit is just about as good as any in the league. If one of them goes down, there’s a significant impact on the offense overall.
5. Prediction?
Machota: Before the season started, I thought this would be a Bills win. But the Cowboys have just been playing too well for me to pick against them. They’ve won seven of their last eight and each of the last four since Jerry Jones announced he is putting Jimmy Johnson in the Ring of Honor. (Some believe, maybe myself included, that a curse could have been lifted by Jones’ making that move.) Cowboys 23, Bills 20.
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Yousuf: This is a pretty even game, but I believe the Cowboys can win this. They’re playing at a high level in all three phases — shoutout to Brandon Aubrey, who will be tested with an outdoor December game — and Mike McCarthy is “in his bag,” as Prescott has said. The key is the Cowboys’ only having to beat the Bills, and not having to overcome the Bills and the Cowboys. The margin for error is thin, so no careless pre- or post-snap penalties and no turnovers. Cowboys 35, Bills 31.
(Top photo of Dak Prescott and Josh Allen: Andy Lewis / Icon Sportswire and Jeff Moreland / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
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