Forget the bell cow running back — introducing the ‘bell calf’

Forget the bell cow running back. It’s a unicorn, to mix mammalian metaphors. But in their place we present a more realistic alternative: The Bell Calf.

Right now there are four RBs who have snap rates of at least 75%, the first gate through which the bell cow must pass:

Saquon Barkley: 86.3%

Leonard Fournette: 84.5%

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Christian McCaffrey: 84.3%

Jonathan Taylor: 75.6%

That’s it, according to YebScore. That’s actually three more than last year, when only Najee Harris (83.5%) made it. Of course, the season is going to wear down some, or maybe all, of the guys. But they’re at least starting with this kind of snap rate. It’s only going to get worse, though, from here.

Alas, there are two other gates through which a bell cow must pass. Is he getting virtually all of the goal line and at least a majority of the third-down work?

It’s early in the season so I’ll be liberal with “goal line” and define it as “inside the 10.”

No one else has a RB carry inside the 10 on the teams of any of these backs. Though I note the Panthers have just two runs inside the 10 all year and one is by Baker Mayfield. Bottom line, though, they all pass the goal-line test.

What about third downs? Barkley has 17 third-down routes (T-2nd). Fournette’s 16 are tied for fourth. McCaffrey has nine but there are only 11 for the Panthers (who can’t run a decent number of plays). Taylor has run 12 of 18 (proving again how utterly worthless Nyheim Hines is).

So if you have one of these guys, you should feel really good about it. But that’s obvious unless you have Fournette, who is not respected as a bell cow and who fantasy and especially fantasy Twitter wants to move out for some new, shiny toy every summer. Regardless of scoring to date, Fournette is one of the few right answers and a bargain at August ADP. He is, unquestionably, THE man.

But what about the Bell Calves? Here we want at least 65% snap share. Those backs are:

Joe Mixon (71.8%)

Najee Harris (69.6%)

Dalvin Cook (68.7%)

Josh Jacobs (65.6%)

Okay, now how do they stack up in goal line and third down?

Only Cook hasn’t gotten every carry from a RB inside the 10 and our founding father Alexander Mattison’s came when Cook was out with a shoulder injury, the foreseeable issue with him all summer (FACT: Cook’s shoulder is made of Velveeta). All clear that goal-liine hurdle.

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Jacobs has run one route on third down. That’s sad. Harris 10 of 17. Cook 10 of 15. Mixon eight of 18.

So Jacobs is out. That doesn’t mean you should trade him. He’s fine (I’d rather my back have goal line than third down.) But we are up to only seven backs you can feel great — or at least good — about.

What about at least 60% of snaps? Let’s call these guys the borderline bell calves. The Veal Chops.

Darrell Henderson (64.4%)

Devin Singletary (63.5%)

Derrick Henry (63.1%)

Ezekiel Elliott (62.9%)

Cordarrelle Patterson (62.2%)

Rashaad Penny (61.1%)

Aaron Jones (60.7%).

Henderson has already been replaced more in touches than snaps by Cam Akers. Were their respective Week 3 touches a fluke, with Akers getting so many more despite not getting many more snaps? Probably. You can at least play Henderson this week if you’re desperate. There’s hope. But he’s not even a borderline bell calf at the moment.

Singletary has run the most routes on the Bills. And he’s had the only goal-line carries. So he actually makes it, shockingly. Of course, the usage of Bills RBs is low. However, this is a great offense that runs a ton of plays. So Singletary should be started.

Henry has run one third-down route. He’s clearly the goal-line back. This offense is also bad. And Henry is old with a lot of miles. I’d be trading Henry yesterday and this analysis supports that — the market thinks of Henry as the very definition of a bell cow. He’s not even a calf.

Elliott has gotten the most goal-line carries and the vast majority of third-down routes. He’s actually fine and we’re overrating Tony Pollard given his usage.

Patterson has gotten half the RB carries near the goal line; that’s not great. And he’s only gotten three of 11 third down routes. RB is so barren that I probably over-ranked him. If someone thinks he’s a top 10 back, you should sell him. This model says Patterson plus a worse receiver for Singletary and a much better WR is a great trade, for example. In a challenge trade, maybe you can get Fournette for Patterson.

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The Seahawks do not have a single RB run inside the 10, which is incredible. I think Penny would get that. But he gets only half the third-down targets. He’s okay to play but clearly not someone you should feel good about.

Aaron Jones has 10 of 16 third-down routes by RBs. But A.J. Dillon has more goal-line carries. I expect this trend to continue. People think that Jones has a high ceiling but, to the extent he does, it has to be with massive efficiency. That’s a tough way to bust out. I’d try to cash out near what I paid for Jones today if I owned Jones, which I do not.

Bottom line: We’re only adding Singletary and Elliott as borderline bell calves. We’ll keep looking at this. More should come online soon at least as borderlines: Breece Hall, Dameon Pierce and Jeff Wilson, for example.

But this is a very barren RB market to start the year.

(Credit to the great Corey Parson for co-coining the bell calf phrase on his radio show when I was on as a a guest. Top photo: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports; Pic of Leonard Fournette: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports)