What we’re hearing about the Chicago Cubs ahead of the GM meetings
In 145 days, the Chicago Cubs will open their 149th National League season on the road against the defending World Series champs. The Texas Rangers were not one of the traditional powers or trendy organizations the Cubs measured themselves against during their rebuilds. The Rangers once threw an A-ball pitcher named Kyle Hendricks into the Ryan Dempster trade and didn’t win another playoff round until this October.
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Signing Corey Seager and Marcus Semien for $500 million combined — right after a 102-loss season and just before Major League Baseball’s lockout — is not how the Cubs do business. There is not only one textbook example for building a World Series winner. But the Rangers spent huge money for free agents, hired Bruce Bochy to run the team, aggressively traded prospects for major-league help and allowed new talents to emerge.
The team the Rangers beat in the World Series entered Wrigley Field with a 72-68 record two months ago, back when the Cubs had a 92.4 percent chance to make the postseason, according to FanGraphs. The Arizona Diamondbacks then went 6-1 against the Cubs in an 11-day span to dramatically improve their playoff odds. Again, there is not a unifying lesson here as much as a reminder that things can change fast.
Whatever it is, the Cubs just have to get it right. Jed Hoyer’s group already has more room to maneuver now that Marcus Stroman decided to opt out of his contract, which feels more like a logical endpoint for the Cubs and the All-Star pitcher than a chance to start over. With that $21 million freed up within the Cubs’ budget for baseball operations, the options will become clearer this week during MLB’s general manager meetings in Arizona, where club executives, league officials, agents and reporters will mingle at a Scottsdale resort.
Free agents
Scott Boras might still be workshopping puns and one-liners for his next media session. But the agent already had his Cody Bellinger metaphor ready when asked for it in June — during the West Coast trip when Bellinger lingered on the injured list and the Cubs dropped to 10 games under .500.
“Cody’s always been my comeback player of the year,” Boras said. “But come back to what? This isn’t coming back to earth. It’s coming back to the clouds. Cody has a ceiling that most players don’t have. No doubt.”
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Beginning July 1, Bellinger posted 75 RBIs in 81 games, fueling the second-half comeback that averted a sell-off at the trade deadline. The New York Yankees were interested in Bellinger at that time, though their team didn’t play well enough to get a rental player of that caliber and the Cubs played so well that they decided to add players for the stretch run.
After going to work at Dodger Stadium and Wrigley Field for so many years, there is a feeling that Bellinger wants to continue playing in a big market. Craig Breslow, who recently left the Cubs to become the chief baseball officer for the Boston Red Sox, saw Bellinger’s all-around contributions up close and could envision him as a foundational player at Fenway Park.
The Cubs will be on this short list and involved in the process. But if Boras convinces an owner to do the kind of megadeal that Xander Bogaerts received from the San Diego Padres last winter (11 years, $280 million), then Bellinger has played his last game in a Cubs uniform.
Trade market
The expectation is that the Cubs will be seeking out trade partners to upgrade various aspects of the club. Hoyer isn’t fond of handing out multiyear deals to relievers, so acquiring an established reliever via trade — perhaps one entering arbitration and getting too expensive for a small-market team — could make sense. With Stroman opting out, a long-term starter becomes a viable option, too.
But with Bellinger’s free agency possibly going deep into the offseason, Hoyer won’t want to risk not having an impactful bat in his Opening Day lineup. A trade for Juan Soto or Pete Alonso makes a lot of sense here for a variety of reasons. That both only have one year of club control remaining — with Boras working as their agent — may be seen as a negative. But that will likely reduce the trade cost and it means Hoyer will remain financially flexible.
It allows for the Cubs to stay nimble should Bellinger still be available later in the offseason and more willing to sign a deal that’s more palatable to Hoyer. It gives youngsters in the lineup some protection and time to continue to develop. Perhaps a prospect emerges as that future middle-of-the-order bat and lessens the need to spend big in free agency again next winter. But the Cubs can’t bank on that possibility and don’t want to get desperate.
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The New York Mets seem focused on adding young pitching, so a trade for Alonso could cost a young arm, but the Cubs seem to be relatively deep there and the cost may not be incredibly high. While many prospects could be available and mentioned in trade rumors, expect Christopher Morel’s name to be bandied about quite frequently. He clearly has an impactful offensive skill set, but the lack of a clear defensive position may make him more valuable to another team willing to let him play at second base every day or even give him the time to learn how to consistently play third base or the outfield at a higher level.
Interested teams have already been doing their homework on Morel, a process that actually started at the trade deadline when several buyers scouted the Cubs as potential sellers. There was little chance he would have been moved over the summer, but teams were already preparing for him being available this winter.
The prospects
One reason Scottsdale is a popular location for executives traveling to the GM Meetings is its proximity to the Arizona Fall League and the convenience of seeing some of the sport’s top rising talents. Though the Cubs placed a less heralded group of prospects with the Mesa Solar Sox, James Triantos is hitting .425 with a 1.205 OPS through 21 games, opening eyes as he still won’t turn 21 for another two-plus months. Kevin Alcántara, 21, is also gaining experience in this showcase league after joining Double-A Tennessee for its championship run and showing why the Cubs targeted him in the Anthony Rizzo trade.
The Cubs have also recently had a hitting guru with 583 career home runs hanging around their Arizona complex. Mark McGwire has been a presence in Mesa, observing and sharing his insights in an unofficial capacity. The Cubs selected McGwire’s son in the eighth round of the 2022 draft and signed Mason McGwire out of Capistrano Valley, the same Southern California high school that produced Hendricks.
Front office
While Breslow is running baseball operations for the Red Sox, the Cubs won’t be down a second prominent executive, as vice president of scouting Dan Kantrovitz has chosen to remain with the organization after being wooed by the Mets for a high-level job in their front office. The chance of Kantrovitz leaving was high enough that the Cubs had at least started to contemplate potential replacements, but ultimately their amateur scouting department will continue to be overseen by Kantrovitz.
Prior to Kantrovitz’s flirtation with the Mets, some changes to the department had already been made. Matt Sherman, who spent the past two seasons as the team’s Northeast regional crosschecker, has been promoted to a more national role. The Cubs will be looking for two crosscheckers now, both in the Northeast and Southeast. Alex McClure — who signed Keegan Thompson and Ethan Roberts out of the draft and also worked in pro scouting and player development — jumped to the Detroit Tigers to become their West Coast regional supervisor for amateur scouting.
Breslow’s defection leaves the organization down two assistant general managers after Jeff Greenberg, now the Tigers GM, left for the Chicago Blackhawks in April 2022. Breslow may have been most known for his work with the team’s pitching development, but he also had much broader responsibilities in building the major-league roster, pursuing free agents and shaping game-planning decisions.
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To replace Breslow, the Cubs can certainly look for someone with a background in pitching development, but it’s not a must, and poaching an official from the Cleveland Guardians won’t happen this time around. Breslow always insisted that he wanted to put an infrastructure in place that would allow for continued success even if he left the team. With Breslow’s departure, there will be others in the department who will be leaned upon now, including Casey Jacobson, the senior coordinator of pitching development, and Ryan Otero, the assistant director of pitching initiatives.
While promotions from within are always occurring around this time of year, the expectation is the Cubs will also take this opportunity to try to bring in talent from another organization. Hoyer has done well in that regard during his three years as team president. Two years into their time with the organization, both GM Carter Hawkins and assistant GM Ehsan Bokhari — neither of whom had previous connections to Hoyer — have been well-received. Perhaps another external hire could help shake things up.
(Top photo of Cody Bellinger: Joe Camporeale / USA Today)
